Did the sun just explode?
Will it rain at 3:30 p.m. today at my house?
Will the Post Office still be open when I get there?
...
Could Donald Trump be elected?
As The New York Times points out daily, the odds of Trump winning are about the same as an NFL placekicker missing from 42 40 38 41 36 34 yards out.
Okay, I’m posting because I am becoming cross at how breezily statistics are being used pretty much everywhere. I’d say almost 62 percent of statistical citations in the media are … spurious.
Even if there is a 90 percent chance of Hillary winning, I would like to point out that is the same chance that the $20 bill in your wallet or purse would test positive for cocaine. (At least it would have in 2009, according to CNN.)
At some point, does the Times set the odds of Trump winning at about the same as … missing an extra point? Having a kick blocked and run back for a touchdown?
I figured this, back in July, as a Clinton landslide. Now, she has run an utterly lackluster campaign, IMHO. I miss Bernie. But Trump has been worse than I imagined, by far.
It isn’t close. But pinning a day-to-day likelihood on it seems to me to be almost deliberately trying to fool at least some of the people most of the time.
And thanks, xkcd.
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